Are GTA home prices falling in November 2026?

The latest official numbers cover October 2026. TRREB reported the GTA benchmark price down 4.3% from October 2025, and the average price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both edged up a little from September. TRREB publishes November figures in December.

Did the Bank of Canada raise interest rates, and what does it mean for my mortgage?

Yes. On October 28, 2026 the Bank raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 2.5% and said more increases could be needed. That raises prime and variable mortgage rates. Five-year fixed rates follow bond yields instead, and the 5-year yield fell from 3.51% to 3.39% between October 30 and November 5. The next decision is December 9.

What did Budget 2026 propose for home buyers?

Budget 2026 proposes raising the price limit for optional mortgage insurance, used on mortgages with 20% or more down, from $1 million to $1.5 million, with 30-year amortizations when a borrower is a first-time buyer or the home is new. No start date was given. Insured mortgages for buyers with under 20% down already allow homes up to $1.5 million (since December 15, 2024).

Is the job market hurting Toronto real estate?

Statistics Canada reported Ontario unemployment rose to 7.3% in October 2026, above Canada's 6.7%, with Ontario employment flat for a third month. TRREB said uncertainty about inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many GTA buyers on the sidelines in October, when sales fell 7.9% from a year earlier.

Weekly market update: Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2026

GTA Prices Down 4.3%, Bond Yields Dip, Budget Widens Mortgage Insurance

Ishwar Garg, BrokerPublished November 7, 20268 min read

GTA prices
−4.3%
benchmark home price vs October 2025
Fixed rates
3.39%
5-year Government of Canada bond yield, Nov 5 (from 3.51% on Oct 30)
Jobs
7.3%
Ontario unemployment rate, October (up 0.3 points)
Federal budget
$1.5M
proposed price limit for optional mortgage insurance (now $1M)

The short version

GTA home prices are 4.3% lower than a year ago (TRREB benchmark, October), and both sales and new listings fell. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices edged up a little from September.
The Bank of Canada raised its rate on October 28, yet the 5-year bond yield that fixed mortgage rates follow fell from 3.51% on October 30 to 3.39% on November 5.
Unemployment rose to 6.7% in Canada and 7.3% in Ontario. Budget 2026 proposes raising the price limit for optional mortgage insurance from $1 million to $1.5 million, with no start date yet.

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What happened this week

Released between Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2026, with the original source for every number.

GTA prices

−4.3%

benchmark home price vs October 2025

GTA (TRREB area)

GTA home prices are lower than a year ago, and fewer homes are changing hands

TRREB's benchmark price, which compares like-for-like homes, fell 4.3% in a year. Sales were 5,603 (down 7.9%) and new listings 14,173 (down 11.9%). The average price was $1,024,108.

Average price change from a year ago, by home type, GTA, October 2026

Semi−0.8%
Detached−3.2%
Town−5%
Condo apt−5.8%

Source: TRREB, October 2026 market statistics (opens in a new tab), released November 4, 2026

Fixed rates

3.39%

5-year Government of Canada bond yield, Nov 5 (from 3.51% on Oct 30)

Canada

The bond yield behind 5-year fixed mortgages fell, even after a rate hike

Lenders price 5-year fixed mortgages off this yield. It eased 0.12 points between October 30 and November 5, in the days after the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on October 28. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell too.

5-year Government of Canada bond yield, daily

Source: Bank of Canada, Canadian bond yields (opens in a new tab), released November 5, 2026

Jobs

7.3%

Ontario unemployment rate, October (up 0.3 points)

Ontario (Canada 6.7%)

Unemployment rose, and Ontario is weaker than Canada as a whole

Canada's rate rose 0.2 points to 6.7% as more people looked for work, while the number of jobs was little changed. Ontario employment has been flat for three months in a row. Across Canada, average hourly wages were up 2.2% from a year ago.

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, October 2026 (opens in a new tab), released November 6, 2026

Federal budget

$1.5M

proposed price limit for optional mortgage insurance (now $1M)

Canada (matters most in the GTA)

Budget 2026 proposes extending the $1.5 million limit to optional mortgage insurance

Optional insurance covers mortgages that don't legally need it (20% or more down). Regular insured mortgages, for buyers with under 20% down, have allowed homes up to $1.5 million since December 15, 2024. No start date or other details yet.

Source: Finance Canada, Budget 2026, Chapter 3 (tabled November 5) (opens in a new tab), released November 5, 2026

What the numbers say together

Taken together, the October numbers fit what TRREB describes as a year of substantial negotiating power on price for GTA buyers: the benchmark is 4.3% below last year and fewer homes are selling. Borrowing costs are pulling two ways. The Bank of Canada raised its rate on October 28, yet the bond yield that fixed mortgages follow fell between October 30 and November 5, and Ontario's job market softened. Our reading of the data: the October inflation report on November 16 and the Bank's December 9 decision matter more for the next move in rates than the October 28 hike, and the budget's mortgage insurance change only matters once Ottawa publishes the rules and a start date.

What it means for you

For buyers

Prices are below last year's. TRREB's Jason Mercer says GTA buyers "continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year." Condo apartment prices fell the most (average down 5.8%), so negotiate from today's prices, not last year's.
If you have a pre-approval or rate hold, ask your lender whether its 5-year fixed rate has moved since the bond yield eased. Lenders reprice on their own timing, and one week is not a trend.
Putting less than 20% down? You can already get an insured mortgage on a home up to $1.5 million, with a 30-year amortization if you're a first-time buyer or buying a new build. The budget proposal is about optional insurance and changes nothing for you today.

For sellers

There is less competition from other listings: new listings are down 11.9% and active listings down 10.0% from a year ago. But sales are down 7.9% too, so price to today's benchmark, not to last year's sales next door.
Prices edged up from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's a small monthly lift, not a turnaround from the yearly decline.

For owners renewing a mortgage

Variable-rate and prime-linked mortgages cost more after the October 28 hike. As an illustration, a 0.25-point rise adds about $84 a month on a $600,000 mortgage over 25 years (4.50% to 4.75%). Many variable mortgages keep the payment fixed, so the hike may change how much goes to interest rather than the payment.
Fixed-rate renewals follow the 5-year bond yield, which fell this week. If you renew in the next few months, ask your lender how early you can lock a renewal rate and whether there is any cost.

For investors and landlords

Budget 2026 will let private insurers cover mortgages on 5 to 50-unit buildings from February 1, 2027, and proposes keeping the foreign-buyer ban on existing homes until January 1, 2029.
Condo prices are falling fastest while Toronto asking rents rose 1.6% from a year ago (Rentals.ca and Urbanation, October). Check real rents in your building: asking rents are not signed leases.

What people might miss

A rate hike and cheaper fixed rates can happen in the same week. The Bank of Canada's rate sets prime, which drives variable mortgages. Five-year fixed mortgages follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield instead, and that yield fell from 3.51% to 3.39% between October 30 and November 5. Our reading: bond markets expect less tightening ahead than the Bank's warning that it "could" raise rates again. For anyone renewing, the gap between fixed and variable is worth a fresh look rather than a reflex.

Lower prices have been cushioning higher rates. TRREB says monthly payments on an average-priced GTA home have edged up from a year ago, but remain much more affordable than in 2023 and 2024, because lower prices have partly offset higher borrowing costs. If you stepped back because of the rate headline, compare the actual monthly payment on the home you want, not the rate alone.

Rents are turning up while construction slows. Toronto asking rents rose 1.6% from a year ago in October to $2,590, the first yearly increase after 32 months of declines (Rentals.ca and Urbanation). CMHC's September numbers, released before this week, show Toronto housing starts down 14% for the year so far (17,397 against 20,129). Fewer homes started today means fewer finished in a few years. Our reading: today's soft condo resale prices and tomorrow's rental supply are heading in different directions, which long-term owners should factor in.

The numbers in context

Measure	Latest	Change	Area
Benchmark home price (TRREB HPI)	October 2026	−4.3% from a year ago	GTA
Home sales	5,603	−7.9% from a year ago	GTA
New listings	14,173	−11.9% from a year ago	GTA
5-year bond yield	3.39% (Nov 5)	−0.12 points since Oct 30	Canada
Unemployment rate	7.3%	+0.3 points in a month	Ontario
Bank of Canada policy rate	2.5%	+0.25 points (Oct 28)	Canada

The payment examples on this page are illustrations only, using Canadian semi-annual compounding: $600,000 over 25 years at 4.50% is about $3,321 a month, and about $3,025 a month over 30 years. A 30-year insured amortization is only open to first-time buyers and buyers of new builds, and it costs more interest in total. These are not rate quotes or forecasts.

Coming up

Scheduled releases that could move the market next.

Nov10
Bank of Canada: summary of deliberations (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
Shows how the Bank debated the October 28 hike and how open it is to raising rates again.
Nov16
Consumer Price Index, October (Statistics Canada) (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
The Bank raised rates to keep high energy prices from feeding broader inflation, which has been around 3% since April. This report shapes the December 9 decision and bond yields.
Nov17
CMHC housing starts, October (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
Toronto starts were down 14% this year through September. Fewer starts today means fewer new homes and rentals in a few years.
Nov17
CREA national home sales, October (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
National context for the GTA's 7.9% drop in sales.
Nov24
Bank of Canada Governor speaks in Toronto (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
Tiff Macklem speaks to the Economic Club of Canada two weeks before the next rate decision. Watch for hints.
Dec9
Bank of Canada rate decision (official schedule, opens in a new tab)
The next decision on the policy rate, which sets prime and variable mortgage rates.

GTA Prices Down 4.3%, Bond Yields Dip, Budget Widens Mortgage Insurance

The short version

What happened this week

GTA home prices are lower than a year ago, and fewer homes are changing hands

The bond yield behind 5-year fixed mortgages fell, even after a rate hike

Unemployment rose, and Ontario is weaker than Canada as a whole

Budget 2026 proposes extending the $1.5 million limit to optional mortgage insurance

What the numbers say together

What it means for you

For buyers

For sellers

For owners renewing a mortgage

For investors and landlords

What people might miss

The numbers in context

Questions this week

Sources

Guides to read next

Closing Costs for GTA Home Buyers: A Line-by-Line Checklist

Land Transfer Tax in Toronto and Ontario, With Examples

Ontario First-Time Home Buyer Incentives Explained (2026)

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